Market Signals

THE FED'S NEEL KASHKARI IS NOW PENCILING IN AN INTEREST RATE HIKE THIS YEAR — via QZ

Friday June 26, 2026 — Iran violated the ceasefire with drone attacks on Strait of Hormuz ships, chip-crunch contagion slams AAPL and MSFT, and Kashka

June 25: We’ve updated our Taylor Rule Utility data by incorporating #BEAdata in addition to updated nowcasts from the @ClevelandFed and Atlanta Fed:

Had a lovely visit with @sam_vadas and the folks at @SchwabNetwork today to discuss the risks of a possible Fed hiking campaign. — via @briangobosox

My computer in 1998

Friday, June 26, 2026: SoftBank -12% on OpenAI IPO delay fears. Strait of Hormuz ship struck, supertankers halt

My interpretation of pulling a “Greenspan” today would be looking at all esoteric microdata to figure out what is mismeasured —because a lot is mismea

Must read Crunchbase interview with ex-Meta CTO and now VC, Mike Schroepfer (link in comment):

📊 10Y-3M Treasury Spread: 0.56 bp (-0bp)

Thursday, June 25, 2026. Chip-crunch contagion tanks AAPL and MSFT. Iran peace talks suddenly real—Rubio vows US won’t bend. Bessent cheers a Fed rese

📊 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread: 0.3 bp (-0bp)

Thursday, June 25, 2026. Iran peace talks: Trump claims big concessions but Rubio scrambles to reassure Gulf allies. NVDA stalls at $200 as it overtak

Rates around the world remain in a bear market (likely a structural one), and both the ECB and BoJ tightened last week. The Fed model remains a left t

WISDOMTREE U.S. CORPORATE BOND FUND DECLARES MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF $0.1750 — via SEEKINGALPHA

Adjusted for ISM methodology, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index slipped to 53.3 in June … still firmly in expansion after spending years oscillating be

Thursday, June 25, 2026 — Asia chops on US-Iran war fears, China macro misses, and AI IP war hitting BABA

Wednesday, June 24, 2026 — Iran ceasefire teeters on nuclear inspection row; Nvidia stalls at $200 dragging semis lower; FedEx crushes Q4.

US PUBLIC HEALTH AGENCY CONCLUDES HANTAVIRUS RESPONSE AS OUTBREAK EASES — via ALJAZEERA

📊 10Y-3M Treasury Spread: 0.65 bp (-0bp)

📊 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread: 0.34 bp (+0bp)

$GALT

Wednesday, June 24, 2026. Iran ceasefire momentum builds, semis drag tech, FDX beats.

June Richmond Fed Manufacturing index down to +4 vs. +8 est. & +13 prior … shipments and new orders remained positive but ticked down from prior month

$WEEK

Wednesday, June 24, 2026 | China-Philippines naval stand-off at Scarborough Shoal. Alibaba sues Pentagon over blacklist. Australia ramps up bird flu s

TRUMP MEDIA: THE TRUMP PREMIUM IS FADING — via SEEKINGALPHA

Adjusted for ISM methodology, manufacturing indexes from NY (blue) and Philly (orange) Federal Reserve Banks were nearly identical in June … both in e

Tuesday, June 23, 2026 — Senate backs Iran war powers resolution; US-Iran peace talks gain ground. Global tech selloff hits $NVDA, $TSLA. Money market

DIREXION DAILY ASML BULL 2X ETF DECLARES QUARTERLY DISTRIBUTION OF $0.1332

Tuesday, June 23, 2026 | Vance touts progress in US-Iran peace talks, Congress voices skepticism. Google & Amazon launch a full-frontal assault on Nvi

CHINA BUILDS RECORD-BREAKING 100-METRE OBSERVATION TOWER IN SOUTH CHINA SEA — via SCMP

We at the Philadelphia Fed wish to convey our deepest sympathies to the family, friends & colleagues of former Chairman Alan Greenspan. His contributi

This morning's conversation on CNBC's Squawk Box -- on the legacy of Alan Greenspan, today's Federal Reserve, the economic outlook ... and even Egypt'

$CBOE

Knee jerk says less fed communication more vol. I'm not so sure of that. — via @dampedspring

The Fed is hiking

Tuesday, June 23, 2026 | US-China rare earth tit-for-tat returns, testing a fragile truce. China EV makers BYD & XPENG push upmarket SUVs even as a gl

EX-TRUMP ADVISOR MAKES BOLD CASE FOR BITCOIN — via YAHOO

Monday, June 22, 2026 — US-Iran peace talks unlock 60-day Iranian oil sales; Nvidia slides as Google & Amazon assault its AI chip stronghold; Fed mour

Monday, June 22, 2026 | US stock futures slip as Iran peace talks ease crude supply fears; Nvidia climbs after AI chip export restrictions are nixed;

OPENAI'S WEB OF BUSINESS RELATIONSHIPS COULD COMPLICATE ITS IPO

Monday, June 22, 2026 — U.S. to deploy midrange missiles to Japan for joint drills; China slashes US Treasury holdings to 18-year low; EV makers BYD a

Pretty cool, maybe Jensen knows what he’s doing.

THE CRYPTO - TREASURY DREAM UNRAVELS AFTER A 90 % STOCK PLUNGE

Saturday, June 20, 2026 — Oil futures briefly turn negative after Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire news; global stocks sink as US-Iran peace talks collapse;

US PROBES WHETHER ASML'S ADVANCED CHIP MACHINE ENDED UP IN CHINA — via ZEROHEDGE

So, after 1.5 years of incinerating 🔥 free market pricing through blatant market manipulation & historic corruption facilitated by ‘deregulation,’ ….

STOCKS RISE ON WALL STREET , ERASING MUCH OF THEIR LOSS FROM A DAY EARLIER | THE ASAHI SHIMBUN : BREAKING NEWS , JAPAN NEWS AND ANALYSIS

OPENAI RESEARCHER AIMS TO TURN CHATGPT INTO HEALTHCARE JUGGERNAUT — Internal project targeting Google-sized scale in medical AI.

$INTC AH $134.28 (+0.22%) — INTEL APPOINTS SEOK-HEE LEE AS EVP OF INTEL FOUNDRY AMID MANUFACTURING PUSH