Thursday, June 25, 2026. Iran peace talks: Trump claims big concessions but Rubio scrambles to reassure Gulf allies. NVDA stalls at $200 as it overtakes CSCO in data center switching. Dollar hits 1-ye

Geopolitics: Rubio promises US will protect Gulf interests but the real danger is what’s left out of the Iran deal. No one’s popping champagne yet. Macro/rates: Bessent slams the dot plot, questions its relevance. Real yields at 2.29%, breakevens sliding to 2.18%. Market pricing rate hikes, DXY surging. Tech/AI: Retail sold NVDA, MSFT, ORCL to fund SpaceX buys. NVDA lands Los Alamos supercomputer deal, yet stock stuck at $200 — breakout or breakdown from here. So what? Risk-off rotation in full force: out of mega-cap tech, into dollars and rate hedges. Iran headlines keep the tape jumpy. NVDA $200 is the line in the sand. Quant Picks (model confidence >= 70): $EIX — +5.3% vs Utilities (6m), confidence 88 $INTU — +5.1% vs Technology (6m), confidence 88 $SBAC — +4.0% vs Real Estate (6m), confidence 88 $LULU — +3.6% vs Consumer Cyclical (6m), confidence 88 $GEHC — +3.3% vs Healthcare (6m), confidence 88

Geopolitics: Rubio promises US will protect Gulf interests but the real danger is what’s left out of the Iran deal. No one’s popping champagne yet.