Friday June 26, 2026 — Iran violated the ceasefire with drone attacks on Strait of Hormuz ships, chip-crunch contagion slams AAPL and MSFT, and Kashkari says he expects a rate hike this year.

Geopolitics: Trump calls the Iran ship strikes a “foolish violation.” WTI plunged to $69 on peace-talk hopes, then reversed. Fragile deal, Israel the wild card, and Strait of Hormuz on edge. Macro/Rates: Kashkari drops the H-word — rate hike still on the table. Real yield grinding at 2.29%, Chicago financial conditions loose at -0.52. Tight spreads, easy money, but a hawkish Fed whisper is back. Tech/AI: NVDA stock hasn’t been this cheap in 7 years as chip prices face competition. Yet the Rubin upgrade cycle says it’s not a bubble. Meanwhile AAPL and MSFT tumble on abrupt price hikes from chip-crunch contagion. What it adds up to this week: Fragile geopolitics, supply-chain shockwaves, and a Fed that’s still got a hike in its back pocket. Nervous tape into the weekend — watch oil on any Hormuz flare-up, and don’t fade the Rubin cycle. Quant Picks (model confidence >= 70): $EIX — +5.3% vs Utilities (6m), confidence 88 $INTU — +5.2% vs Technology (6m), confidence 88 $MSFT — +4.9% vs

Geopolitics: Trump calls the Iran ship strikes a “foolish violation.” WTI plunged to $69 on peace-talk hopes, then reversed. Fragile deal, Israel the wild card, and Strait of Hormuz on edge.