Thursday, June 25, 2026. Chip-crunch contagion tanks AAPL and MSFT. Iran peace talks suddenly real—Rubio vows US won’t bend. Bessent cheers a Fed reset but Kalshi traders price near-zero chance of a G

Thursday, June 25, 2026. Chip-crunch contagion tanks AAPL and MSFT. Iran peace talks suddenly real—Rubio vows US won’t bend. Bessent cheers a Fed reset but Kalshi traders price near-zero chance of a GDP boom. Rubio tells Gulf allies the Iran deal won’t sacrifice US interests. The real danger is what’s left out—oil flows, proxies, enrichment—meaning any ceasefire could break fast. NVDA overtakes CSCO in data center switching for the first time. Retail sold NVDA, MSFT, ORCL to fund SpaceX buys. Meanwhile the AMD vs NVDA fight gets louder after the chip sell-off. Real yields sit at 2.29%, 10Y breakeven inflation 2.18%. HY OAS still glued near 2.7bp—credit markets see no stress. Bessent slams the dot plot, talks up a communication reset. Bessent says GDP is about to boom. Kalshi traders say no shot. The disconnect is widening just as chip-crunch price hikes hit the mega-caps. This week feels like a pressure cooker: credit tight, AI names choppy, geopolitics on a knife’s edge. You’re p

Rubio tells Gulf allies the Iran deal won’t sacrifice US interests. The real danger is what’s left out—oil flows, proxies, enrichment—meaning any ceasefire could break fast.