What changed
Thursday, June 25, 2026 — Asia chops on US-Iran war fears, China macro misses, and AI IP war hitting BABA
US-Iran conflict flashes 8 takeaways: Hormuz risk premium back, oil supply jitters, global trust in US leadership eroding fast
China retail sales and April industrial output both miss—slow grind, deflation pulse still there, yuan soft
Anthropic accuses BABA of ‘largest known distillation attack’ on Claude; ASML, peers visit China despite US curbs—AI decoupling now a legal battleground
So what? Risk-off tilt into the weekend. Oil bid, HSI stuck, Shanghai drifting. Watching Iran escalation and any surprise China stimulus
Quant Picks (model confidence >= 70):
$EIX — +5.3% vs Utilities (6m), confidence 88
$INTU — +5.1% vs Technology (6m), confidence 88
$SBAC — +4.0% vs Real Estate (6m), confidence 88
$LULU — +3.6% vs Consumer Cyclical (6m), confidence 88
$GEHC — +3.3% vs Healthcare (6m), confidence 88
Why it matters
US-Iran conflict flashes 8 takeaways: Hormuz risk premium back, oil supply jitters, global trust in US leadership eroding fast