MONDAY, OCTOBER 12, 2026: Trump's Ukraine 'energy ceasefire' is fraying, oil rebounded on the mess, and TSMC's Q3 preview is the main AI earnings event. Memory stocks slid. Watch crude and TSM.

Geopolitics is messy: Zelensky backs Trump's 'energy ceasefire' but Russia keeps hitting power plants, Iran calls the latest U.S. proposal insufficient, and Cheong Wa Dae urges North Korea to halt illegal missile launches. Watch oil and KRW. Oil rebounded after Trump's 'energy ceasefire' unraveled, with futures flat. Dwindling fuel supplies collide with continued attacks on energy infrastructure. Long oil vol is the trade if Ukraine and Russia keep trading grid strikes. TSMC Q3 preview: 65% profit growth expected, but net margin seen slipping to 50%. The bigger number is the $60B capex boost driving clean business to near-full capacity. TSM is the AI demand tell. ASML earnings preview asks if 55% sales growth can still surprise Wall Street. After the AI run, watch orders and the 2027 guide to justify the multiple. US Q3 earnings season faces a tougher test on high expectations. Consumer discretionary quant ratings are in focus ahead of prints. Bad signal if guidance cannot clear a high

Geopolitics is messy: Zelensky backs Trump's 'energy ceasefire' but Russia keeps hitting power plants, Iran calls the latest U.S. proposal insufficient, and Cheong Wa Dae urges North Korea to halt ill