Tuesday, October 13, 2026: Trump defends Russian diesel supplies as oil ticks lower, Hormuz risk keeps shipping stocks at records, and India's Nifty/Sensex drop 0.7% as the oil surge fades.

Geopolitics: North Korea says its latest launch tested an upgraded tactical ballistic missile, while Trump says he may meet Kim on his Asia trip. Korea assets will trade headline-first, not fundamentals-first. Commodities: oil is caught between more Russian diesel supply and Gulf/Hormuz disruption risk. That combo is bullish freight, not necessarily crude: Torm and Hafnia are at records as tanker rates spike. India derivatives: India VIX is up 36% since September and Nifty expiry is today. Bulls need support to hold; the issue is a 0.7% index drop with elevated vol usually means dealers chase hedges, not dips. Macro/rates: prediction markets price 85.5% odds the Fed upper bound is above 3.75% after March 2027. That is a slow-cut signal, and it keeps pressure on Asian growth/tech multiples. US labor: prediction markets imply only 13% chance October 2026 payrolls top 125k. Good signal for disinflation, bad signal for demand. Watch that trade-off into Fed pricing. Korea corporate: Wegovy

Geopolitics: North Korea says its latest launch tested an upgraded tactical ballistic missile, while Trump says he may meet Kim on his Asia trip. Korea assets will trade headline-first, not fundamenta