MONDAY OCT 12: Trump's Ukraine "energy ceasefire" is already falling apart, Zelensky says Russia keeps hitting energy targets and oil is rebounding. Futures are flat, memory stocks sliding. All eyes o

Zelensky now says he'll hold elections if Putin agrees to a 60-day ceasefire. That's a real pressure move on the White House. The diesel deal between Putin and Trump is the tell. Watch refined products if the ceasefire claim keeps unraveling. Not sure people appreciate how much diesel tightness feeds into CPI. CPI and bank earnings are the twin event risks. Prediction markets say 99% odds September CPI YoY prints above 3.2%, and only 14% odds October payrolls top 125k. That combo is stagflation-ish. Fed funds above 3.75% by March 2027 is priced at 85.5%. Goldman upgraded stocks and bonds on strong earnings and little recession risk. Good signal, but the rates market isn't fully buying it. $MSFT is leaning more on homegrown AI chips to cut $NVDA dependence. This is the slow grind that matters for Nvidia's long-term share. $TSM's Q3 setup hinges on 2nm ramp and AI demand. Advanced nodes are where the mix shifts. $TSM is the cleanest read on whether AI capex is still accelerating. $SBUX s

Zelensky now says he'll hold elections if Putin agrees to a 60-day ceasefire. That's a real pressure move on the White House. The diesel deal between Putin and Trump is the tell. Watch refined product