TUESDAY, JULY 21, 2026 — Houthis open a Saudi naval blockade, the U.S. slaps 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods, and China’s Moonshot AI files for a Hong Kong IPO.

Geopolitics is the only story that matters right now — a Houthi blockade in the Red Sea threatens Saudi oil flows and escalates the U.S.-Iran shadow war into something hotter. The U.S. claims it found three China-linked spy sites in Cuba — this isn’t a new Cold War, it’s the same one just moving closer to home. Watch BYD — hiring Hungary’s ex-top diplomat deepens the EU’s security fears just as the bloc debates fresh EV tariffs. Moonshot AI’s Hong Kong IPO is interesting — the Kimi K3 model is shocking Silicon Valley and this is a pure AI sentiment play for a market starved of growth. The macro setup is brutal — Kalshi has a 20.5% chance the Fed holds rates above 3.75% next week and only a 30.5% chance of a solid payrolls print.

Geopolitics is the only story that matters right now — a Houthi blockade in the Red Sea threatens Saudi oil flows and escalates the U.S.-Iran shadow war into something hotter.