StockDuty ← Dashboard Aug 14, 2026 01:22 PM ET
CatalystFutures Digest

CBOE Nasdaq vol 3rd %ile, gold vol 6th, skew 8th. Not calm—complacent. Cheap hedges everywhere.

What changed
Kalshi has Nasdaq 32000–32499.99 Dec 31 at 4%. Market pricing a nap, not a range. Corn futures Dec-2026 100th %ile. S&P futures 100th %ile. Russell 2000 ETF 100th %ile. Everything pinned at highs. The issue is mean reversion. Vol this low across skew, gold, Nasdaq means shocks get amplified fast. Mixed signals? More like one crowded long with zero insurance. Watch the vol complex.
Why it matters
Kalshi has Nasdaq 32000–32499.99 Dec 31 at 4%. Market pricing a nap, not a range.
Sources
digest
Related signals
VIX, VIX of VIX, Nasdaq vol all pinned at 0-2nd %ile. S&P dispersion 2nd %ile. The vol complex is pricing perfection. Th →Equity vol is basically asleep: VIX 9th %ile, VVIX 2nd, Nasdaq vol 5th, dispersion 9th. Gold vol at 69th is the only one →Nasdaq vol 6th %ile, VIX of VIX 2nd %ile, SPX dispersion 6th %ile. That’s not calm, that’s a stretched rubber band. →