VIX 90th %ile, VIX of VIX 89th, MOVE 89th, Nasdaq vol 88th. Stress is broad. Kalshi only 17.5% on S&P pinning 7650-7675 today. Bad signal for calm.

Silver Dec 26 at 0th %ile, gold futures 8th, XLI 0th, Hang Seng 0th. That is a lot of washed-out assets. Watch this for a mean-reversion snap or a real crack. WTI Kalshi 63.5% above $98.99 today. Crude vol only 72nd %ile. Not sure people appreciate oil is priced for a move without a vol scream. MOVE 89th and Kalshi just 29% on Fed upper bound above 6% after Jan 2027. The issue is rates vol is high but the tail is cheap. Good signal for hedging. So what: vol stress is 89th-90th %ile, but Kalshi says 17.5% S&P stays in a 25-point band today and 1.5% Nasdaq under 19k by year-end. Either hedges are overpriced or the market is asleep. Watch: $DSPX $MOVE $SPY $UB_F $VVIX $XLRE

Silver Dec 26 at 0th %ile, gold futures 8th, XLI 0th, Hang Seng 0th. That is a lot of washed-out assets. Watch this for a mean-reversion snap or a real crack.