What changed
Nasdaq vol 2nd %ile. This is not normal calm, this is a setup.
Corn at 98th %ile, heating oil 97th. Inflation inputs not cooling.
Dow 94th %ile and Kalshi says 83% chance of $54k this year. Priced for perfection.
Russell 2000 ETF and SHY both at 100th %ile. Risk-on and safety bid at the same time. That’s weird.
The issue is everyone’s hedged for nothing and positioned for everything.