Futures are pinned near highs but the vol complex is screaming something else entirely.

MOVE index at the 87th %ile. VIX at the 3rd %ile. That gap is not subtle. The issue is the dispersion index at the 2nd %ile. Everyone is hedged the same way. Everyone is comfortable. That’s the trap. Copper at the 98th %ile. Russell futures at the 100th %ile. USD/CNY at the floor. This is a full-on reflation squeeze with the yuan pinned. Not sure people appreciate how crowded this is.

MOVE index at the 87th %ile. VIX at the 3rd %ile. That gap is not subtle.