Futures are pinned near highs and vol is asleep — VIX 3rd %ile, Skew 6th %ile, Dispersion 8th %ile

That’s not calm, that’s a coma — and MOVE is at the 82nd %ile screaming that rates vol sees something equity vol doesn’t Good signal / bad signal setup Dow futures at the 97th %ile with Kalshi giving 83% odds on $54k — that’s priced for perfection Copper 97th %ile, corn 94th %ile — reflation trades are fully extended into a Friday The issue is there’s no cushion if anything misses

That’s not calm, that’s a coma — and MOVE is at the 82nd %ile screaming that rates vol sees something equity vol doesn’t