Futures are pinned at all-time highs again. Dow 100th %ile. XLF 100th %ile. XLB 100th %ile. Everything cyclical is screaming.

Copper at the 100th %ile is the one to watch. That’s not just reflation — that’s priced-for-perfection industrial demand. One hiccup and it snaps. The issue is the vol complex isn’t buying this melt-up. MOVE index 74th %ile says bond traders are hedging. Skew at the 3rd %ile says equity traders are asleep. Kalshi has Dow >$54K at 83%. That’s not a prediction — that’s a crowd already all-in. Upside surprise is harder from here. Good signal for momentum, bad signal for asymmetry. If the regime flips, it flips fast. Watch copper and MOVE for the tell.

Copper at the 100th %ile is the one to watch. That’s not just reflation — that’s priced-for-perfection industrial demand. One hiccup and it snaps.