Futures are stretched but the vol complex is sending mixed signals — MOVE at 96th %ile says stress, gold vol at 2nd %ile says nap time. One of these is wrong.

Dow futures at the 98th %ile with Kalshi giving 83% odds on $54K. That’s priced for perfection and then some. Silver at the 6th %ile while everything else rips. Either it catches a bid hard or it’s telling you something the indices aren’t. TLT 2nd %ile, SHY 98th %ile. The curve is screaming recession and nobody in equities seems to care. Watch that disconnect. The issue is crude vol at the 62nd %ile with WTI above $116 in play. If oil spikes from here, the soft landing thesis gets real shaky real fast.

Dow futures at the 98th %ile with Kalshi giving 83% odds on $54K. That’s priced for perfection and then some.