Futures are leaning risk-off but not panicked—skew is screaming while spot VIX is just “elevated”

The issue is the S&P Dispersion Index at the 95th %ile—correlations are breaking down under the surface Gold vol at the 6th %ile is a bad signal—deeply complacent in a macro tape this fragile Corn and soybeans both at the 100th %ile—grains are pricing something the equity market hasn’t caught up to yet Treasury futures at the 0th %ile—bonds are getting smoked and nobody’s talking about it Kalshi has WTI above $117 at just 8.5%—that feels mispriced if crude vol is only at the 65th %ile

The issue is the S&P Dispersion Index at the 95th %ile—correlations are breaking down under the surface