S&P dispersion at the 94th %ile and VIX of VIX at the 97th %ile. That’s not caution, that’s a pressure cooker.

The issue is the regime is flashing stress, but spot VIX is only at the 61st %ile. Someone’s asleep at the wheel. Soybeans at the 98th %ile and copper at the 95th %ile. Commodities are screaming late-cycle, not soft landing. 2-year and 5-year notes both at the 2nd %ile. Bonds are pricing something the equity vol surface hasn’t fully caught up to yet. Kalshi has WTI >$116.99 at just 8.5%. With crude vol at the 60th %ile, that feels mispriced if this commodity squeeze has legs.

The issue is the regime is flashing stress, but spot VIX is only at the 61st %ile. Someone’s asleep at the wheel.