CBOE Skew at the 92nd %ile. Market is pricing a crash, not a dip. Watch the reaction to any bad news.

Silver at the 0th %ile, Gold at the 3rd. Precious metals are getting crushed while Dow futures sit at the 92nd %ile. That’s a weird divergence. SHY at the 100th %ile. The front end of the curve is screaming safety. Not sure people appreciate how defensive this rotation is. The issue is the Dow. Kalshi gives it a 10% shot at $55k this month, yet it’s at the 92nd %ile. That’s stretched optimism against a fearful vol backdrop. So what? Risk is being priced in the options pit but not in the index levels. One of these is wrong.

Silver at the 0th %ile, Gold at the 3rd. Precious metals are getting crushed while Dow futures sit at the 92nd %ile. That’s a weird divergence.