Stress signals are flashing across the board — MOVE 89th %ile, VVIX 66th, Skew 84th, Dispersion 97th. This isn’t a calm backdrop.

Dow Futures at 90th %ile. Financials (XLF) at 98th %ile — full risk-on. Yet LQD (investment grade bonds) sits at 5th %ile. The divergence is glaring. Kalshi gives just 9.5% odds the S&P closes Fri between 7825-7850. And only 10% Dow hits 55k this month. The market is pricing wide outcomes. Good signal. VIX of VIX elevated, indices at multi-month highs, and the most extreme dispersion in years. This isn’t a top-calling exercise — but it is a fragile setup. Watch the skew.

Dow Futures at 90th %ile. Financials (XLF) at 98th %ile — full risk-on. Yet LQD (investment grade bonds) sits at 5th %ile. The divergence is glaring.