Weekend scan — Sat Sep 12, 2026: $NVDA in talks to put $10B into Anthropic’s record-setting IPO; Fed market says 80.5% odds upper bound >3.75% after Sep 16; CPI >3.2% YoY for Sep priced at 95.5%.

This is interesting: $NVDA writing a $10B check into Anthropic’s IPO is not just VC — it’s Nvidia buying distribution in frontier models while AI’s $5T bill comes due. IPO buyers will treat it as a strategic demand signal, not a clean S-1. Is $MU the next $NVDA? The tape keeps teasing it. Micron’s HBM/DRAM leverage to AI is real, but 'next Nvidia' is a valuation shortcut — $NVDA owns the software moat, $MU sells memory into cycles. Good signal if HBM pricing stays tight. Fed odds: 80.5% that upper bound is above 3.75% after Sep 16. That’s the market saying no cut, or not enough cut. With CPI >3.2% priced at 95.5%, inflation is still the trade — bad for duration, okay for AI capex names. Only 22% odds for >125k September payrolls. Labor cooling is the disinflationary offset to sticky CPI. If payrolls miss, Fed hides behind employment; if they beat, rates stay higher for longer. Watch the Sep 16 dot plot. Corporate/earnings angle: $AAPL $MSFT $AVGO $MU $AMD all sit downstream of the same

This is interesting: $NVDA writing a $10B check into Anthropic’s IPO is not just VC — it’s Nvidia buying distribution in frontier models while AI’s $5T bill comes due. IPO buyers will treat it as a st