Wednesday, October 14, 2026: ASML smashes Q3 and sees order interest through 2030, China exports drive a record trade surplus, and Ukraine hits two more Russian refineries after Trump's energy ceasefi

Ukraine hitting two more refineries after an "energy ceasefire" is the tell: the war is still trading energy infrastructure. Kremlin anger means no quick sanctions relief. Watch diesel cracks more than crude. ASML's huge Q3 beat plus order interest through 2030 is the cleanest AI capex signal you can get. If lithography demand is that visible, semis are not rolling over. Good signal for NVDA, TSMC, AMAT. TSMC reports next, and the options chain shows a big $500 call wall. Earnings season is heating up and UBS is flagging beat candidates. If TSMC clears $500, semis rip. If not, crowded longs unwind. Another bond yield spike is pressuring stocks. Gold ticks lower before CPI. Prediction markets price only 1.5% odds CPI tops 4.6% for November 2026, and 85.5% odds the Fed funds upper bound is above 3.75% after March 2027. Rates are still the boss. OPEC cut its oil demand outlook, but Ukraine's refinery attacks are a supply story. That tension keeps crude choppy while product cracks stay fir

Ukraine hitting two more refineries after an "energy ceasefire" is the tell: the war is still trading energy infrastructure. Kremlin anger means no quick sanctions relief. Watch diesel cracks more tha