What changed
TLWM increased its NVDA stake and Goldman is raising money for the AI push, so the earnings bar is already high—clean quarter or bust.
Cerebras says NEO clouds are breaking away from Nvidia dependence and calls 2027 a large opportunity. Watch this because any real diversification in cloud capex questions NVDA's multiple.
Jensen says 2020 A100 GPUs stay mission-capable through 2029. Good signal for installed-base longevity, but it also means older silicon keeps competing longer.
DeepSeek V4 Pro launches at 14x V4 Flash price for stronger reasoning and agent work. The issue is AI pricing is bifurcating: cheap base models, expensive reasoning.
Nvidia discloses a big SpaceX stake in Q2. This is interesting—NVDA is putting cash into Musk's orbit rather than just buybacks.
KXFED sits at 20.5% odds the upper bound stays above 3.75% after the Fed's July 29 meeting. That's a dovish tape—rates likely lower, which supports growth multiples.
KXPAYROLLS is only 30.5% that July adds more than