Sunday, October 11, 2026 — Trump announces immediate Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire; Zelenskyy says it was a surprise but signals support; diesel prices are the trigger. Seoul warns of US intel fallo

Trump says Russia and Ukraine agreed to an energy ceasefire effective immediately. Zelenskyy was caught off guard per Axios but is backing it. If strikes on energy infrastructure actually stop, this is a real de-escalation. If not, it's noise. The ceasefire is about diesel, not just Brent. Trump floated it amid worries over diesel prices. Any real halt to energy-infrastructure attacks hits product cracks first. Watch diesel, not crude. KXFED-27MAR-T3.75 at 85.5% — market sees Fed upper bound above 3.75% after the Mar 17, 2027 meeting. No deep-cut cycle priced. Higher-for-longer is still the base case. KXCPIYOY-26SEP-T3.3 at 98.0% — CPI above 3.3% for the year ending Sep 2026. That's not a Fed that can ease hard. Energy relief helps, but 98% is a sticky inflation signal. KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T125000 only 14.0% for above 125,000 jobs added in Oct 2026. Weak hiring plus 3.3%+ CPI is the stagflation combo. Bad signal for risk if it persists. Seoul is defending US intelligence ties and warning

Trump says Russia and Ukraine agreed to an energy ceasefire effective immediately. Zelenskyy was caught off guard per Axios but is backing it. If strikes on energy infrastructure actually stop, this i