What changed
Gaza: one year after the ceasefire, the Board of Peace has little to show. This keeps a risk premium in oil and defense. Watch Brent and nat gas at Monday's open. Not sure people appreciate how unresolved this still is.
Katie Zacharia to White House press secretary: a Trump Media advisor gets the podium. Good signal for DJT loyalists, bad signal for anyone expecting calmer comms. DJT stays a political-beta trade, not a fundamentals story.
Macro/rates: KXFED-27MAR-T3.75 at 87% — market says the upper bound is above 3.75% after the March 2027 Fed meeting. That's not a cut cycle. Rates stay higher for longer. Watch 2s10s and the dollar.
Inflation: KXCPIYOY-26SEP-T3.3 at 97.5% — CPI above 3.3% for the year ending September 2026. Sticky inflation is the base case. Bad signal for duration, good for TIPS and commodities.
Jobs: KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T125000 at 14% — only a 14% chance of above 125k jobs added in October 2026. Labor market is cooling hard. The issue is 3.3%+ CPI means the Fed can't j
Why it matters
Gaza: one year after the ceasefire, the Board of Peace has little to show. This keeps a risk premium in oil and defense. Watch Brent and nat gas at Monday's open. Not sure people appreciate how unreso
← Dashboard
Oct 10, 2026 05:06 PM ET