Sept 26, 2026: Trump rejects Iran's seven-day ceasefire, plans to resume bombing after midterms; Saudi coalition intercepts projectiles; Trump wraps historic China state visit. Those are the three tha

Geopolitics: Iran says it awaits US response on a seven-day roadmap to end war. Trump's rejection keeps the war premium alive. Watch weekend headlines. This is not a de-escalation tape. Commodities: Iran war oil shock is outliving Ukraine fallout. That's a slow-burn supply risk, not a one-day spike. Energy security is back as a core macro variable. Bad for importers, good for tankers. Macro/rates: Prediction markets have 84.5% odds the Fed's upper bound is above 3.75% after the Mar 17, 2027 meeting. Higher-for-longer is the base case. Bond market may still be too complacent. Macro/inflation: CPI >3.4% for year ending Sep 2026 is 90% on prediction markets. Payrolls >125k for Sep is only 31%. Sticky inflation plus weak jobs is a stagflation mix. Worst combo for risk assets. China/HK: Trump's historic China state visit is a headline positive, but China's tech rivalry with the US raises stakes for Korea. Semis and supply chains are the real battleground, not communiques. Corporate/defense:

Geopolitics: Iran says it awaits US response on a seven-day roadmap to end war. Trump's rejection keeps the war premium alive. Watch weekend headlines. This is not a de-escalation tape.