Sunday, September 13, 2026: Iran hard-liners killed Trump’s peace deal, BRICS leaders warn on nuclear risk, and Modi-Xi talks put India-China into a pragmatic phase.

Iran is the Monday oil trade: hard-liners blew up the Trump peace deal, so crude risk premium stays alive. Watch Brent, USO, XLE, defense. The issue is Strait of Hormuz headlines forcing the move. BRICS unity against 'Trumpism' is a real signal. Xi is pitching China as peacemaker and Modi-Xi are de-escalating. Good for Asian tail risk, bad for dollar exceptionalism. Watch DXY, EEM, FXI. China/HK: Xi at BRICS is selling China as the adult in the room while India-China goes pragmatic. If that holds, quiet positive for HK equities, CNY, EM ex-US. Watch FXI, KWEB, USD/CNH. Kalshi KXFED-26SEP-T3.75 at 80.5% — Fed upper bound likely stays above 3.75% after Sep 16. Higher-for-longer is still base. Watch 2s/10s and DXY; cuts are not priced. KXCPIYOY-26SEP-T3.7 only 17% — CPI above 3.7% is a tail, not base. But oil from Iran can re-price that fast. TIPS and energy are the hedge. Not sure people appreciate how thin the inflation tail is. KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T125000 at 18% — odds of >125k September

Iran is the Monday oil trade: hard-liners blew up the Trump peace deal, so crude risk premium stays alive. Watch Brent, USO, XLE, defense. The issue is Strait of Hormuz headlines forcing the move.