What changed
Hormuz transits ticking up but ceasefire fragile—oil traders brace for funeral chaos. Peace talks pause, risk premium creeps back.
Trump’s pre-flip tech buys raise eyebrows. Meanwhile $NVDA floats double-dipping datacenter financing and bets on $3T-$4T AI capex by 2030.
10Y yield jumps to 4.48%, real yield 2.25%. Fed balance sheet swells $13B to $6.724T. Kalshi traders betting June jobs miss.
China signals capital control easing? SCMP asks when, not how. Quiet NDRC-Indonesia talks hint at PBOC patience.
So what? Geopolitics is back in the driver’s seat, AI narrative holds but governance stinks, rates grind higher. A soft jobs print could snap the calm.
Quant Picks (model confidence >= 70):
$EIX — +5.5% vs Utilities (6m), confidence 100
$CLX — +4.0% vs Consumer Defensive (6m), confidence 100
$CPRT — +4.0% vs Industrials (6m), confidence 100
$ES — +3.8% vs Utilities (6m), confidence 98
$SBAC — +3.8% vs Real Estate (6m), confidence 100