Friday, July 3, 2026 | Iran peace talks on ice as slain supreme leader’s funeral looms. Trump bought $AAPL, $NVDA before tariff reversal. Nvidia sales chief retires, stock called “insanely cheap” AH $

Hormuz transits ticking up but ceasefire fragile—oil traders brace for funeral chaos. Peace talks pause, risk premium creeps back. Trump’s pre-flip tech buys raise eyebrows. Meanwhile $NVDA floats double-dipping datacenter financing and bets on $3T-$4T AI capex by 2030. 10Y yield jumps to 4.48%, real yield 2.25%. Fed balance sheet swells $13B to $6.724T. Kalshi traders betting June jobs miss. China signals capital control easing? SCMP asks when, not how. Quiet NDRC-Indonesia talks hint at PBOC patience. So what? Geopolitics is back in the driver’s seat, AI narrative holds but governance stinks, rates grind higher. A soft jobs print could snap the calm. Quant Picks (model confidence >= 70): $EIX — +5.5% vs Utilities (6m), confidence 100 $CLX — +4.0% vs Consumer Defensive (6m), confidence 100 $CPRT — +4.0% vs Industrials (6m), confidence 100 $ES — +3.8% vs Utilities (6m), confidence 98 $SBAC — +3.8% vs Real Estate (6m), confidence 100

Hormuz transits ticking up but ceasefire fragile—oil traders brace for funeral chaos. Peace talks pause, risk premium creeps back.