OCT 15 2026: Ukraine resumes strikes on Russian refineries and kills the energy ceasefire. UBS now sees a March Fed hike after an inflation surprise. $NVDA $AMD $MU fall as AI stocks sell off.

Geopolitics: the US is floating unfreezing some Russian assets to restart Ukraine talks. This is interesting: Washington tries to buy peace with frozen money while Kyiv hits Moscow's oil revenue. Watch refinery runs and diesel cracks. Commodities: Ukraine hitting refineries is a direct shot at Russia's export cash and global product markets. Energy ceasefire hopes are gone. If strikes continue, crude and diesel risk premium comes back. Earnings: $TSM just posted Q3 revenue NT$1.49T, a record, and guided 2026 capex at $60B to $64B. That is a huge AI demand signal. The issue is $NVDA $AMD $MU are selling off anyway, so good news is not enough right now. Tech/AI: $NVDA is on a European spending spree, and it backed an AI-for-climate startup after the climate part got iced. Jensen Huang is also breaking with Trump on immigration: "We want all the world's great minds to come here." Macro/rates: UBS extended its Fed tightening call and now sees a March hike. Treasury yields are falling and t

Geopolitics: the US is floating unfreezing some Russian assets to restart Ukraine talks. This is interesting: Washington tries to buy peace with frozen money while Kyiv hits Moscow's oil revenue. Watc