Thursday July 2, 2026 – Soft jobs data slashes hike bets, Dow bounces, WTI cracks a 4‑month low. Nvidia gambles on a trillion‑dollar robotics boom and offers startups compute‑for‑revenue swaps.

Yen crumbles to a 4‑decade low, JGB yields rip to 30‑year highs — a policy mess that drowns out the weak payrolls calm. 10y breakeven 2.24%, BBB OAS pinned near 0.94bp. NVDA’s pitch: swap raw compute for equity/revenue share, partner with Sharon AI and Firmus. TSMC capex normalizes but process dominance untouched. Fed slaps enforcement on a small biz bank, terminates BNP Paribas and Community Bankshares actions. Mega‑fund concentration triggers fresh systemic risk jitters. China whispers: SCMP asks when capital controls loosen, NDRC vice chair talks with Indonesia — slow motion on opening. SO WHAT: A soft‑landing bid fights a yen‑fueled risk‑off; NVDA’s robotics pivot keeps AI froth alive. Into the long weekend, position for lower rates and commodity weakness but don’t fade the AI trade. Quant Picks (model confidence >= 70): $EIX — +5.6% vs Utilities (6m), confidence 100 $SBAC — +4.6% vs Real Estate (6m), confidence 100 $CPRT — +3.9% vs Industrials (6m), confidence 100 $CINF — +3.

Yen crumbles to a 4‑decade low, JGB yields rip to 30‑year highs — a policy mess that drowns out the weak payrolls calm. 10y breakeven 2.24%, BBB OAS pinned near 0.94bp.