Tuesday, October 13, 2026: Russia's diesel deal collides with Ukraine's ceasefire denial, inflation is expected to accelerate again, and bank earnings season opens. Those three set the tape.

Ukraine is flatly disputing Trump's claim of an energy ceasefire while Russian strikes keep hitting Ukrainian targets. Trump defends the Russian diesel deal as "a deal for the rest of the world." Not sure people appreciate how fast this flips the diesel crack and European gas. Oil ticked lower as Russian diesel supply prospects offset Gulf supply risk. But that diesel deal is less than two weeks of U.S. demand. Watch this: it is a headline, not a supply solution, and the market is trading it like one. Bank earnings land this week. $WFC, $JPM and $GS are the first real read on credit and net interest income with cuts priced for 2027 and a steeper curve. $UNH later in the week gives the healthcare cost read. Guidance matters more than the beat. OCC slapped a $750 million assessment on $BAC for deficient BSA/AML compliance. That is a control failure, not a trading loss, and it lands right as banks report. Bad signal for the sector's regulatory backdrop. China is finding it hard to wean it

Ukraine is flatly disputing Trump's claim of an energy ceasefire while Russian strikes keep hitting Ukrainian targets. Trump defends the Russian diesel deal as "a deal for the rest of the world." Not