Thursday, October 08, 2026: RBI hikes repo to 5.5%, AI names slide on OpenAI revenue report, and $PEP cuts earnings growth outlook.

Geopolitics: India to Turkiye truce push for Russia-Ukraine is worth watching, but Gaza strikes despite ceasefire show peace deals are still stalling. No market risk premium is being priced for either — that's the gap. Macro/rates: RBI raises repo to 5.50% — a 25 bps hike — in first move under Governor Sanjay Malhotra, shifts to “calibrated tightening.” This is a real hawkish surprise for India — consumers and rate-sensitive stocks feel it first. Earnings: $PEP lowers earnings growth outlook on North America margin pressure, even as quarterly results top views. Bad signal: pricing power is fading, and the market will punish guidance more than beats. Tech/AI: $NVDA, $ORCL, $CRWV and other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report. The issue is not demand today — it's whether the AI capex chain can justify the revenue expectations baked in. $64B is the size of the faith trade right now. Corporate: $GFS rallies after announcing a 2 billion-dollar $TSM deal. That's a good signal for lagging

Geopolitics: India to Turkiye truce push for Russia-Ukraine is worth watching, but Gaza strikes despite ceasefire show peace deals are still stalling. No market risk premium is being priced for either