What changed
Geopolitics: VP Vance says Iran must cut nuclear enrichment to end war, while Trump reveals a surprise US taxpayer stake in a new $6.6B submarine deal. Watch defense names and oil risk premium — this is policy mixing with industrial capacity.
Earnings: Constellation $STZ keeps full-year profit outlook and posts surprise fiscal Q2 earnings growth. Consumer staples aren't screaming recession yet — good signal for the soft-landing trade.
Corporate: Valaris $VAL adds $220M to backlog after contracts and extensions. Offshore oil services demand is still firm even with macro noise — that's a quiet bullish tell for energy capex.
Tech/AI: Microsoft $MSFT wants you to ditch your MacBook $AAPL for a $2,599 Surface Laptop Ultra with an Nvidia $NVDA AI chip. Meanwhile Apollo $APO and banks are in talks to finance SpaceX's $40B Nvidia GPU purchase. AI capex is not slowing; it's moving to the edge and to private space.
Macro/rates: 30-year Treasury yield hits fresh 24-year high, 10Y TIPS real yield