Monday, October 05, 2026: 10Y Treasury at 5.347% (+6bp), euro at 17-month low on French fiscal contagion, and $NVDA’s $20BN Groq deal hit with a lawsuit. Rates, Europe, and AI legal risk are the tape.

Macro/rates: US PMI composite stuck at 58.4 and euro-zone growth at a 3.5-year high despite inflation worries. Kalshi says 61.5% odds Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after Mar 2027, 42% odds CPI above 3.6% for Sep 2026, only 11.5% odds October payrolls top 125k. Sticky inflation, cooling labor — higher-for-longer. Earnings: record 72 S&P 500 firms issued positive Q3 guidance, per FactSet. Good signal on breadth, but with 10Y at 5.347% there’s no multiple-expansion cushion — beats need to be real. Tech/AI: Nvidia’s Groq licensing deal now faces a lawsuit from jilted engineers claiming stockholders were shortchanged. BNP raised $NVDA and $INTC price targets on AI demand. Legal noise vs fundamental demand — watch this. China/HK/AI: Hon Hai beat sales estimates on AI frenzy; La Rosa is buying NVIDIA B300 GPUs. The AI capex cycle is broadening beyond hyperscalers, which is why DBS says Nvidia valuations aren’t a bubble. Fixed income/credit: Treasury yields are at multiyear highs, but cred

Macro/rates: US PMI composite stuck at 58.4 and euro-zone growth at a 3.5-year high despite inflation worries. Kalshi says 61.5% odds Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% after Mar 2027, 42% odds CPI abo