Wed Sep 30, 2026: Iran reviews US ceasefire counterproposal as Hormuz terms stay unclear; China and US extend trade truce with tariff cuts; Treasury yields hit highest since 2002, Dow -131.

Geopolitics: Qatar is pressing a US-Iran peace deal, but Trump denies sanctions relief and Hormuz terms remain fuzzy. Oil is pricing risk again. Watch crude and tankers before you touch energy. Rates: Treasury yields hit highest since 2002, Dow -131, futures dragged by oil and yields. Hedge funds now hold >$2T in Treasuries via leveraged basis trades. This is a crowded carry unwind risk. Macro: Kalshi gives 85% odds Fed upper bound >3.75% after Mar 2027, 93.5% odds Sep 2026 CPI >3.4%, only 29.5% odds September payrolls >125k. BofA sees RBI repo +100bps through H1 2027. Sticky inflation, weak jobs = bad mix. China/HK: China-US extend trade truce and agree tariff cuts. China services PMI hits 3-month high. Good signal for China consumer and HK tech, but watch if it's just pre-tariff front-running. Tech/AI: DeepSeek partners with Huawei to build AI chip programming tools to cut Nvidia reliance. NYT says it targets a key source of NVDA's dominance. This is the real long-term moat threat. A

Geopolitics: Qatar is pressing a US-Iran peace deal, but Trump denies sanctions relief and Hormuz terms remain fuzzy. Oil is pricing risk again. Watch crude and tankers before you touch energy.