Friday, September 25, 2026: Trump-Xi trade truce, 30Y Treasury yield at a 22-year high, and Iran's 7-day ceasefire proposal set the tape.

What changed

Iran pitches a 7-day roadmap to end conflict with the US; Zelenskyy looks to Trump to end Ukraine war before winter; US tries to revive Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks. Two wars, one Trump. Any deal hits oil risk premium first. 30Y Treasury yield surges to a 22-year high; 10Y sits at 5.195%; traders are asking if 6% is in play. Dow still jumped 470 Friday and stocks notched a winning week. The long bond is the signal, not the Dow. Bessent is muscling the BOJ while the Fed and ECB set their own courses. Trump shared weak-yen concerns with Japan's Takaichi. The yen is the carry-trade pressure valve — if the BOJ moves, global duration feels it. Nvidia, AMD, Intel considering glass substrates in chips; SCHMID surges. SpaceXAI to double Nvidia chips at Colossus 2 by year-end. But the AI stock beating NVDA almost 4:1 this year just burned nearly $1B in cash. Watch cash burn, not just chips. Oracle cites force majeure on its controversial New Mexico data center. That's a bad signal for data-ce

Why it matters