SEPT 24, 2026 — 10Y Treasury yield hits 5.1% for first time in 19 years, US-China extend trade truce to January, Oracle force majeure on New Mexico data center drops $ORCL 3%.

The Fed just hiked, and the 10Y is at 5.1%, highest since 2007. Stocks ended down as oil and yields rose. The issue: 5% lost shock value, 6% is the new fear. Watch $JEPI $SCHD and money markets. US-China trade truce extended to January, per Bessent. Good signal for $AAPL $NVDA supply chains into holiday season. But it just kicks the tariff cliff to January. Watch the reset, not the headline. Russia-Ukraine energy/grain ceasefire signals plus Iran’s 60-day ceasefire plan and Hormuz risk. Oil bid with yields up is a bad mix. If Hormuz stays tense, crude keeps inflation sticky and punishes $MSFT $AVGO multiples. $ORCL force majeure on New Mexico data center is a corporate red flag. Stock dropped 3%. If Oracle can’t deliver AI capacity, the whole AI capex trade gets questioned. Watch $NVDA $AVGO $MU $AMD reactions. Earnings angle: $NVDA valuation hits decade low despite profit boom. This is interesting—earnings exploding, multiple compressed. Either market smells peak AI capex or it’s the

The Fed just hiked, and the 10Y is at 5.1%, highest since 2007. Stocks ended down as oil and yields rose. The issue: 5% lost shock value, 6% is the new fear. Watch $JEPI $SCHD and money markets.