Wed Sep 23, 2026: 10Y Treasury yield hits 5.1% for first time in 19 years, Ukraine/Russia trade new strikes as Trump pushes energy truce, and US-Iran talks fail to break through. That's the tape.

Ukraine says it's ready for an "energy ceasefire," Zelensky wants a trilateral with Putin and Trump. Fresh strikes hit anyway. Watch energy, not just headlines. Tehran dangled a peace deal hours before Trump threatened to "annihilate" Iran. US-Iran talks ended with no breakthrough. This is a live tail risk for oil and risk assets. The 5-year Treasury yield breached 5% for the first time since 2007, and the 10-year hit 5.1%, a 19-year high. Stocks slipped midday. Prediction markets still price 85.5% odds Fed funds upper bound is above 3.75% after Mar 2027, 46.5% odds Sep CPI tops 3.6%, and only 25.5% odds payrolls top 125k. Goldman leads bidding for $37B Palmer Square, a CLO powerhouse. Credit is still open for business even as Treasury yields scream. Watch whether spreads start to care. Tech tape is weird: $NVDA is down 2% but on track to snap six straight losing sessions, while $AMD has blown past Nvidia this year. Everyone's asking if AMD is the better buy. Nvidia's last quarter was

Ukraine says it's ready for an "energy ceasefire," Zelensky wants a trilateral with Putin and Trump. Fresh strikes hit anyway. Watch energy, not just headlines.