FRIDAY, SEPT 18, 2026: The Fed hike is still squeezing markets, the BOJ just lifted rates to a 31-year high, and $VWAGY slashed profit guidance on China and BEV pain.

What changed

Geopolitics: UN mission finds evidence signaling US war crimes in Iran; Washington rejects it. Trump approves a potential $24B fighter-jet sale to Saudi Arabia, and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon joins Jensen Huang and Sam Altman at Trump's dinner for Xi. Defense and China-tech diplomacy are now the same trade. Macro/rates: Fed hiked, indexes bounced, but Treasury yields are up and the S&P 500 is heading for a losing week. Muni bonds are bid — investors want yield, not risk. Kalshi has 99% odds fed funds upper bound is above 3.75% after Oct 28, 98.5% odds CPI is above 3.2%, but only 21% odds payrolls top 125k. Japan: BOJ raised rates to a 31-year high, but the yen is weak because the vote was split. That's a bearish yen signal, not a hawkish one. Watch carry trades — if the yen keeps sliding, BOJ credibility gets tested fast. Corporate/China: $VWAGY cut profit guidance as China, restructuring charges, and slow BEV adoption bite. This is the legacy auto playbook: China profits are no longer s

Why it matters