Sept 14, 2026: 10Y Treasury yield hits 5% for first time since 2023, Trump claims Russia-Ukraine energy truce, and Trump phones $NVDA's Jensen Huang to dismiss AI data-center opposition as a hoax.

Geopolitics: the Russia-Ukraine energy truce claim is the de-risking trade — if real, it hits crude/gas and helps inflation; but it's just a claim, so don't chase. Japan is now a bigger S&P catalyst than US-Iran conflict. Macro/rates: 10Y at 5% is the main event. 10Y-3M spread 91.9bp, 10Y-2Y 33.5bp. AI stocks plunge because duration is repricing. Not sure people appreciate how fragile AI is to 5% 10Y. Fed Sep 16: 86.5% odds upper bound above 3.75%. Tech/AI: Trump called Nvidia's Huang onstage, slammed Anthropic's CEO, and said he's the only AI guardrail needed. Meanwhile $PLTR and Nvidia restrict Anthropic models over data retention. Political cover for AI capex, but safety friction is real. Corporate: $FMX announced a $280M accelerated share repurchase. That's a real buyback signal from FEMSA, not just cheap talk. Good signal for cash generation and management confidence. Earnings/analyst: Monday's biggest calls hit AI, space, consumer tech, autos, media, fintech, industrials, and chi

Geopolitics: the Russia-Ukraine energy truce claim is the de-risking trade — if real, it hits crude/gas and helps inflation; but it's just a claim, so don't chase. Japan is now a bigger S&P catalyst t