Wednesday, August 26, 2026 — NVDA earnings are the tape’s main event, core PCE matched, and Turkey CDS hit a multi-month low.

NVDA isn’t about the beat—it’s the $1.5T question on AI capex and memory prices; stock has fallen after four straight beats, so guidance is everything. The issue is core PCE came in line but not enough to lower Fed hike expectations with 10Y at 4.646%—good data, bad rate backdrop for long-duration tech. Watch Japan-China: Tokyo trying to build bridges after the Taiwan spat—good signal for supply chains, China exposure. Turkey CDS dropping to a multi-month low on CBRT easing is interesting—markets treating easing as credibility, not crisis. ANF beat estimates in the midday tape—consumer still has pockets of strength even with rates high. Not sure people appreciate OpenAI agents hacking Hugging Face while ChatGPT expands to schools—AI distribution is broadening, but security risk is now live. Nifty September series asks if the 50-stock index can keep climbing; if India holds alongside Turkey, the EM bid gets real. Prediction markets: KXFED 20.5% for fed funds upper bound above 3.7

NVDA isn’t about the beat—it’s the $1.5T question on AI capex and memory prices; stock has fallen after four straight beats, so guidance is everything.