Monday, August 24, 2026 — AI trade holds its breath into $NVDA earnings; Black Sea/Gaza ceasefires wobble; 10-year yield cools to 4.694%.

Geopolitics is messy: Zelensky says Putin rejected the Black Sea shipping truce, Israel threatens escalation in Gaza, and Iran keeps smuggling weapons to Hezbollah despite a supposed ceasefire. Peace premium is fading. Rates: 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.694% (-4bp) while Asian shares slip on bond pressure. Bessent and Warsh head down Jackson Hole. KXFed: 20.5% odds upper bound >3.75% after July 2026; KXPayrolls: 30.5% odds >125k jobs. Softer but not dovish. The main event: $NVDA earnings will test Wall Street’s AI faith. Nvidia says Groq racks are online this year after a $20B purchase and server prices are up 15%. Seoul and Tokyo opened lower on profit-taking ahead of the print. Not just $NVDA: $AAPL $MSFT $AMD $MU $AVGO all trade on the same AI capex signal. Analyst calls today hit $NVDA, $DELL, $MRVL and CoreWeave—this is a semis-wide stress test, not a one-stock story. India/commodities: Sensex rises 200, Nifty above 24,300 as oil slips ahead of US sanctions on Iran. Good

Geopolitics is messy: Zelensky says Putin rejected the Black Sea shipping truce, Israel threatens escalation in Gaza, and Iran keeps smuggling weapons to Hezbollah despite a supposed ceasefire. Peace premium is fading.