Tuesday, August 18, 2026: US-Iran ceasefire expires with no deal, oil and long-end yields jump, and $NVDA lines up $105B for OpenAI's Ohio data center.

The 60-day US-Iran truce is gone; Trump says no talks planned, Iran threatens the US blockade, and peace prospects dim — oil supply-risk premium is back. $HD beat Q2 but the issue is the mix: customers stuck to small projects and management still calls housing "frozen" — not a home-improvement reflation trade. $NVDA is swapping credit support for exclusive chip sales at the OpenAI Ohio campus — Nvidia is basically becoming the landlord of AI infrastructure, not just the vendor. Watch the broadening: Soros Capital made its most dramatic Q2 bet on $TSM, $BLK says the US alone needs 70 GW for AI power, and LG+Nvidia target 100,000 hours of humanoid training data. The 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high — that is the real brake on housing and long-duration tech, more than the Fed's next move. Oil climbs as US-Iran peace hopes fade; a disruption in the Strait would turn energy from a headline risk into the next inflation impulse. Prediction markets are still dovish: KXFed gives

The 60-day US-Iran truce is gone; Trump says no talks planned, Iran threatens the US blockade, and peace prospects dim — oil supply-risk premium is back.