Monday, August 17, 2026: Iran’s 60-day ceasefire expired with no permanent deal, the 30-year Treasury yield topped 5.31%—highest in 19 years—and $NVDA made a $3B bet on the power behind AI.

Trump won’t extend the Iran ceasefire and threatens to ‘bomb’ Oman if it gets in the way; the Strait stays defiant, so gasoline prices stay politically ugly. The long end is the story: 30-year yield >5.31%, 10-year 4.728%, BBB OAS at 98bp and HY at 267bp—tight spreads plus 19-year high long yields is the fuse under portfolios. $NVDA is building the AI stack: OpenAI Ohio lease with Nvidia backing, $1.5B into SB Energy, $21B SpaceX stake disclosed, and a $100B credit guarantee deal in the works; $AAPL $MSFT $AVGO $MU all trade on that capex wave. CFTC seeks feedback on compute derivatives after the CME announcement—this is interesting because it would let traders hedge AI compute like a commodity. Prediction markets see only 20.5% odds the fed funds upper bound is above 3.75% after July 29 and 30.5% odds July payrolls >125k; Jackson Hole is the next repricing event. $WMG reaffirmed its 2026 outlook and dividend after Q3, while traders price roughly 1-in-4 odds Paramount’s bid for $W

Trump won’t extend the Iran ceasefire and threatens to ‘bomb’ Oman if it gets in the way; the Strait stays defiant, so gasoline prices stay politically ugly.