Thursday, August 13, 2026 — Iran/Hormuz, Nvidia’s $500B AI infra deal, CME record 27M contracts a day.

Iran denies US talks, Hamas cheers keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed until a regional ceasefire, Ukraine offers Russia a Black Sea truce, and Putin visits Japan-claimed Kurils — oil and shipping risk is getting repriced, not resolved. Flat PPI has advisors debating the Fed’s next move, while Kalshi prices only 20.5% odds the fed funds upper bound is above 3.75% after July 29 and 30.5% odds July payrolls top 125K — dovish and soft is the lean. Nvidia is near a $500B AI infrastructure deal, some investors say it “isn’t even enough,” and bulls call it risky but brilliant for aging GPUs — yet NVDA is up just 20% YTD while Intel’s market value grew 474%; not the same AI trade. Diesel crack spreads exploded to a record on a refined-products “perfect storm” warning — not sure people appreciate how much Iran’s Hormuz threat turns this into an energy logistics squeeze, not just a crude story. CME Group (CME) averaged a record 27M contracts a day in July, and an unsettled Fed is its best c

Iran denies US talks, Hamas cheers keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed until a regional ceasefire, Ukraine offers Russia a Black Sea truce, and Putin visits Japan-claimed Kurils — oil and shipping risk is getting repriced, not resolved.