Tuesday, August 11, 2026

The tape is about AI infrastructure financing hitting escape velocity and a sudden Iran peace headline. Nvidia is everywhere—open models, space, a $500B funding coalition with alts giants. That’s the main story. Second story: credit spreads are asleep. BBB OAS at 0.97, HY at 2.70. No fear. Third story: crude risk from Libya. NOC warning force majeure on Zawiya refinery if drone attacks keep up. Geopolitics: Wall Street popped on fresh US-Iran peace deal reports. Watch this—if it sticks, it rewrites the energy risk premium overnight. But Gaza is still hot. IDF firing on a Hamas sniper near the ceasefire line under new rules of engagement. The issue is, one escalation there and the regional calm trade unwinds fast. Macro: Not sure people appreciate how much the CBO debt interest number is starting to matter. Treasury is spending $3 billion daily just on interest. That’s a structural bid for yields until something breaks. On the real economy, KXPAYROLLS at 30.5% for above 125k jobs in J

The tape is about AI infrastructure financing hitting escape velocity and a sudden Iran peace headline. Nvidia is everywhere—open models, space, a $500B funding coalition with alts giants. That’s the main story. Second story: credit spreads are asleep. BBB OAS at 0.97, HY at 2.70. No fear. Third story: crude risk from Libya. NOC warning force majeure on Zawiya refinery if drone attacks keep up.