Monday, August 03, 2026 — Markets caught between a possible Iran deal and a flat July. Warsh at Jackson Hole this week. Jobs data Friday.

Trump says Iran peace deal is “imminent,” orders halt to strikes — gold and crude dip on the headline, but Kalshi traders aren’t buying it yet. The issue is, Gaza tells a different story — 19 killed in fresh airstrikes even as Trump pushes a new ceasefire plan. Good signal for de-escalation, bad signal for follow-through. Kevin Warsh steps to the Jackson Hole mic after an S&P 500 that went nowhere in July — markets are braced for earnings, jobs, and Iran all hitting at once. Michael Burry just doubled down on bearish bets against NVDA and MU — not sure people appreciate he’s also buying consumer names. This is a rotation call, not just a chip short. Alibaba bankrolled Kimi K3 with 20,000 Nvidia chips and now Qwen is losing to its own compute — China’s AI race is getting expensive and cannibalistic fast.

Trump says Iran peace deal is “imminent,” orders halt to strikes — gold and crude dip on the headline, but Kalshi traders aren’t buying it yet.