Friday, July 31, 2026 — It’s a bifurcated tape. Amazon’s AI story rips, Apple plunges, and the macro backdrop stays weirdly calm.

Trump says he’s losing faith in Iran. The peace deal narrative that helped calm oil is suddenly on shaky ground. Watch crude. Earnings season is make or break. AMZN soaring on AWS AI demand that Jassy says outpaces capacity through 2027. AAPL getting crushed. No room for error. The issue is, financial conditions just loosened again. Chicago Fed index at -0.55. This market is not priced for any macro stress. Real yields are flat at 2.41% but breakevens ticked up to 2.26%. The bond market is napping while equities swing wildly on single names. Everyone is still buying semis. Swiss National Bank, Cathie Wood, a dozen funds. TSM and NVDA are the only trades that matter in a slow macro week.

Trump says he’s losing faith in Iran. The peace deal narrative that helped calm oil is suddenly on shaky ground. Watch crude.