Thursday, July 23, 2026 — Oil rips above $100 as the Iran ceasefire collapses. House votes to end the war anyway, dealing Trump another loss. And the 10Y yield hits 4.71%.

The issue is, the Iran situation is a mess. A ceasefire dies after 60 days, Christians face more pressure, and Congress is now openly defying the White House on war powers. Good signal for volatility, bad for risk. $CMCSA missed on EPS, revenue fell 1.2% YoY. $BX crushed it — $1.29 vs $1.18 expected. $POOL beat on adjusted but was flat on GAAP. The consumer is fine, just picky. $TSLA got smoked, -13.8%. Record deliveries can’t hide a broken growth story. Watch this — the market is no longer pricing Tesla like a tech company. $NVDA is the story again. Jensen Huang says Taiwan saved the US chip industry. Analysts are adding it back. And NVIDIA just revealed a 9.3% stake in Nebius. Not sure people appreciate how aggressively they’re building an ecosystem. Credit is still asleep. BBB spreads at 0.97bp, high yield at 2.69bp. Real yields at 2.37%. The bond market sees no stress. Equities are pricing something else entirely.

The issue is, the Iran situation is a mess. A ceasefire dies after 60 days, Christians face more pressure, and Congress is now openly defying the White House on war powers. Good signal for volatility, bad for risk.