What changed
The US launched fresh strikes on Iran overnight while Pakistan’s ceasefire push collapses. Rubio says Iran isn’t serious. Trump attends the dignified transfer of 4 more service members killed since the last truce ended.
NVDA +3.1% on news it’s entering the $200B CPU market with its Vera chip. Not just GPUs anymore — this is the next growth leg. Supplier Wistron also opening a $700M Texas plant for AI superchips.
10Y yield at 4.66%, real yields ticking up to 2.35%. But here’s the weird part — high yield OAS unchanged at 2.69 bp. Credit markets are pricing zero stress while geopolitics burns. That spread is a joke if anything spills into oil.
Watch this: Moonshot, whatever that is, reportedly accessed banned NVIDIA chips. If this becomes a sanctions enforcement story, it could get messy for the AI supply chain.
Kalshi traders are betting on Iran and Vietnam for GE Vernova earnings, not wind blades. Good signal — the market sees defense and emerging market infrastructure as the real d